4
Hardly Ready
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 30/04/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |