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6

Intimate

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 79

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 62 par20/10C6OR 62C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 61 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 64 par26/04C6OR 64C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 58 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 58 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 60 par1/06C9OR 60C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 65 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 1m70y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 72 par6/07C6OR 72C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 76 · 1m70y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 78 par19/08C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2026-08-03Presque Isle Downs?3rd0th+3
2026-07-06Presque Isle Downs?1st-1th+2
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-01Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-25Presque Isle Downs?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1025/056/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
10/04/202610th33/10%0%0.00
26/04/20269th33/10%0%0.00
25/05/20263rd5/174%60%-0.14
01/06/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
17/06/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
06/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
03/08/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31
19/08/20264th11/486%25%-0.61