Two Scoops

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 76

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-19	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-28	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-22	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2024-09-17	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2024-08-27	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2024-07-18	Saratoga	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength65%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/06/2024	2nd	15/2	61%	89%	+0.28
18/07/2024	9th	33/1	0%	11%	+0.11
27/08/2024	2nd	10/1	47%	88%	+0.40
17/09/2024	1st	11/10	94%	100%	+0.06
22/06/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	71%	+0.35
28/07/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	83%	+0.04
19/08/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	50%	-0.29