4
Camilo
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |