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4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 29/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark29/04/2025 · OR 71 par29/04C9OR 71C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark13/05/2025 · OR 69 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark03/06/2025 · OR 67 par3/06C9OR 67C6 @ Mountaineer 15/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2025 · OR 70 parC6 @ Mountaineer 11/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 72 par11/08C6OR 72C8 @ Mountaineer 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 5f Fm 121 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 71 parC8 @ Mountaineer 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 80 par9/06C8OR 80C7 @ Mountaineer 04/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 80 · 5f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Mountaineer 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 74 · 5f Fm 124 · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 74 par1/09C8OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Mountaineer?5th5th0
2026-08-04Mountaineer?6th5th+1
2026-06-09Mountaineer?1st1st0
2025-09-04Mountaineer?1st1st0
2025-08-11Mountaineer?1st-1th+2
2025-07-15Mountaineer?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0415/079/061/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
13/05/20253rd2/189%60%-0.29
03/06/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
15/07/20252nd10/382%86%+0.03
11/08/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
04/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
09/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
04/08/20266th12/137%0%-0.37
01/09/20265th14/126%43%+0.17