3
Thalberg
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |