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4

Persisten

4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 83

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 97 par4/04C8OR 97C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 98 par29/04C8OR 98C8 @ Monmouth Park 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 95 parC7 @ Penn National 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 98 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 98 par28/05C7OR 98C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 16/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 93 · 1m70y 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 93 parC5 @ Delaware Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 95 · 1m110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 95 par10/07C5OR 95C6 @ Delaware Park 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 85 par26/08C8OR 85projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Presque Isle Downs?6th6th0
2026-07-24Delaware Park?8th6th+2
2026-07-10Delaware Park?6th3rd+3
2026-06-16Presque Isle Downs?1st-2th+3
2026-05-28Penn National?1st0th+1
2026-05-10Monmouth Park?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0410/0510/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
11/04/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
29/04/20265th2/189%43%-0.47
10/05/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
28/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
16/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
10/07/20266th8/158%0%-0.58
24/07/20268th10/147%0%-0.47
26/08/20266th13/266%17%-0.49