3
Hawks Creek
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 15/09/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |