Bad Beat Brian
9yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 108
Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Lone Star | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Lone Star | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |