IvyArcIvyArc
4

Guapo

4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 65

Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Remington Park 13/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 73 par13/09C6OR 73C6 @ Remington Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 64 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 64 parC5 @ Remington Park 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 5f Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 72 par14/11C5OR 72C8 @ Remington Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 76 parC5 @ Will Rogers Downs 13/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 72 par13/01C5OR 72C5 @ Will Rogers Downs 02/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/02/2026 · OR 76 parC5 @ Will Rogers Downs 23/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/02/2026 · OR 82 par23/02C5OR 82C5 @ Will Rogers Downs 14/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 69 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 69 parC0 @ Remington Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 5f Fm 11912/09C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Remington Park?5th5th0
2026-04-14Will Rogers Downs?7th4th+3
2026-02-23Will Rogers Downs?7th4th+3
2026-02-02Will Rogers Downs?2nd-1th+3
2026-01-13Will Rogers Downs?1st-2th+3
2025-12-20Remington Park?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0920/1223/0212/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20259th11/271%20%-0.51
04/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
14/11/20256th7/163%50%-0.13
20/12/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
13/01/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
02/02/20262nd6/492%86%-0.06
23/02/20267th15/890%0%-0.90
14/04/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
12/09/20265th25/10%33%+0.33