Kamaal

2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 87

Salisbury · 'Pyledriver' British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) · 6f 213y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.1

Today: 3

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Lingfield	3	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-17	Newbury	1	8th	5th	+2	4.6
2026-06-16	Royal Ascot	1	10th	7th	+3	3.1
2026-05-15	Newbury	4	5th	6th	−1	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▼

Strength54%

Delivery trend -17.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/05/2026	5th	10/1	47%	56%	+0.08
16/06/2026	10th	200/1	0%	55%	+0.55
17/07/2026	8th	25/1	0%	22%	+0.22
03/09/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	50%	-0.38