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A Bear Affair

2yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 92

Salisbury · British EBF Joan Snow Memorial Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

70%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won the Brocklesby at Doncaster in March and posted a good second in 5f listed race at Sandown in July. Has also recorded solid efforts in valuable sales events at Newmarket and Doncaster on last 2 runs, fourth of 17 on latter occasion when sporting first-time blinkers (retained). Not ruled out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 13328/0322 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 5f Goo 1331 @ Sandown 28/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0511 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Sandown 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 5f10y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 88 par3/071OR 881 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 97 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 94 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 94 par22/082OR 942 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 92 · 6f111y Goo 126 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 92 par10/092OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster24th4th0
2026-08-22Newmarket25th5th0
2026-07-17Newbury18th7th+1
2026-07-03Sandown12nd1st+1
2026-06-17Royal Ascot16th5th+1
2026-05-28Sandown17th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0317/0622/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/05/20263rd5/287%0%-0.87
28/05/20267th5/174%14%-0.59
17/06/20266th50/10%79%+0.79
03/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
17/07/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
22/08/20265th9/153%76%+0.24
10/09/20264th20/10%81%+0.81