Napa
2yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 89
Salisbury · British EBF Joan Snow Memorial Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Newmarket | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |