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4

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2yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 97

Salisbury · British EBF Joan Snow Memorial Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a winning start in novice at Ripon (5f) in June and has acquitted himself well in good company all 4 runs subsequently, finishing third of 8 in Sirenia Stakes at Kempton (6f) last time. This consistent sort is not out of things.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f Gd 1333/0641 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR - · 5f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS20/0611 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 96 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 96 par17/071OR 961 @ Deauville 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 4f213y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 96 par8/081OR 961 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 6f Sta 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 96 par5/091OR 96projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton13rd1st+1
2026-08-08Deauville13rd2nd+1
2026-07-17Newbury14th3rd+1
2026-06-20Royal Ascot14th2nd+2
2026-06-03Ripon41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0620/0617/078/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -14.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
20/06/20264th33/10%85%+0.85
17/07/20264th3/184%67%-0.18
08/08/20263rd11/893%71%-0.21
05/09/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24