6
Super Tuscan
2yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 82
Salisbury · British EBF Joan Snow Memorial Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bath | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +18.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 94% | +0.78 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |