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6

Fleetwater

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 81

Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly gained reward for several creditable efforts when winning a better event over C&D in June. Struggled in Class 2 company both starts since, latterly beaten 8 lengths in Ayr Bronze Cup. Ought to at least be competitive back on her latest winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 82 par13/034OR 823 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 82 · 6f Sta 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 81 par6/044OR 813 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 82 · 6f12y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 82 par15/063OR 823 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 83 par28/073OR 832 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 24 · OR 83 · 6f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 83 par18/092OR 83projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr213th11th+2
2026-09-03Salisbury27th5th+2
2026-07-28Goodwood38th7th+1
2026-06-30Salisbury31st0th+1
2026-06-15Windsor39th8th+1
2026-06-07Goodwood33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/037/0628/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20262nd25/10%83%+0.83
28/03/20266th33/10%50%+0.50
06/04/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
07/06/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
15/06/20269th12/137%27%-0.10
30/06/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
28/07/20268th50/10%63%+0.63
03/09/20267th15/261%25%-0.36
18/09/202613th33/10%48%+0.48