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10

Golden Brown

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 79

Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has advanced his form in 3-y-o handicaps since getting off the mark in a C&D maiden (good to soft) in May. Undone by wide draw when well held at Chester (6f, heavy) last time. Still has bit to find at the weights on second start against his elders.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 78 par21/082OR 782 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 78 · 6f111y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 78 par1 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 78 · 5f217y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 78 par4/101OR 784 @ Lingfield 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 85 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 85 par23/054OR 852 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 22 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 83 par12/083OR 834 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Chester 19/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f17y Hvy 132 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 80 par19/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Chester47th7th0
2026-09-04Ascot43rd3rd0
2026-08-12Salisbury36th5th+1
2026-06-13York28th6th+2
2026-05-23Salisbury41st1st0
2026-04-20Lingfield42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0820/0412/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength3%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20256th18/15%75%+0.70
11/09/202511th33/10%50%+0.50
04/10/20252nd17/255%93%+0.38
20/04/20262nd4/998%83%-0.14
23/05/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
13/06/20268th16/116%67%+0.51
12/08/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
04/09/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
19/09/20267th12/137%33%-0.04