11
Kohana Nation
3yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 78
Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Salisbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 18/5 | 81% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |