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12

Lyra Lea

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 77

Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Two-time 7f winner. Coped well on first try sprinting when 2¼-length third in fillies handicap over C&D last month. Looked more straightforward when running to similar level at Sandown (7f) latest. A 1 lb reprieve probably isn't enough, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 24/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 74 par24/092OR 744 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 7f Gd 128 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m142y Std 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 72 par18/054OR 724 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 7f16y Sft 127 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 73 par30/065OR 735 @ Sandown 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 78 par14/084OR 782 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 78 par11/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Sandown44th4th0
2026-09-03Salisbury23rd1st+2
2026-08-14Newbury46th6th0
2026-07-24Sandown51st2nd−1
2026-06-30Salisbury52nd3rd−1
2026-06-06Chepstow42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/096/0614/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/20257th33/10%54%+0.54
12/10/20253rd16/116%78%+0.62
18/05/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
06/06/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
30/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
24/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
14/08/20266th11/486%17%-0.69
03/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
11/09/20264th5/174%50%-0.24