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Regional Rock

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 84

Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage sprinter from excellent yard. Wasn't able to build on the promise of his handicap debut when suffering interference behind Supreme King over C&D 7 weeks ago. Could be worth another chance dropped in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 24/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f12y Gd 13324/0552 @ Carlisle 25/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f182y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS25/0625 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 6f2y GF 137 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 86 par26/065OR 863 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 85 · 6f12y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 85 par27/073OR 853 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 85 par12/083OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Salisbury34th3rd+1
2026-07-27Windsor33rd2nd+1
2026-06-26Doncaster52nd3rd−1
2025-06-25Carlisle22nd0th+2
2025-05-24Windsor51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0525/0626/0627/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
25/06/20252nd13/891%75%-0.16
26/06/20262nd2/999%86%-0.13
27/07/20263rd15/261%83%+0.23
12/08/20264th5/174%50%-0.24