IvyArcIvyArc
5

River Spey

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 83

Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f

#14

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in a 3-y-o Windsor handicap (6f) in June. Better than the result at Glorious Goodwood prior to reverting to his slow-starting ways at Newbury (5f) latest, when never able to land a blow. Return to 6f can only help and is weighted to be competitive from his inside draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 29/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/0722 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 83 par2 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par6/092OR 855 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 135 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 84 par4/034OR 843 @ Windsor 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 6f12y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 87 par9/072OR 873 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 85 · 5f34y GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 85 par15/083OR 85projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Newbury39th8th+1
2026-07-30Goodwood37th6th+1
2026-07-09Newmarket211th9th+2
2026-06-01Windsor31st0th+1
2026-03-04Kempton46th6th0
2025-10-09Chelmsford City51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/079/109/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength40%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20253rd66/10%86%+0.86
20/08/20254th13/266%83%+0.18
06/09/20253rd11/1094%87%-0.08
09/10/20251st1/499%100%+0.01
04/03/20266th4/179%29%-0.50
01/06/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
09/07/202611th25/10%17%+0.17
30/07/20267th22/10%65%+0.65
15/08/20269th11/142%27%-0.15