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13

Safari Dream

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 76

Salisbury · Sandown Kia Salisbury Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time C&D winner who was at the top of his game when completing a Ffos Las double (6f, good) in August. Didn't find as much as looked likely when beaten 4 lengths on hat-trick bid here (6f, soft) latest. This looks a better race, too.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 69 par25/035OR 694 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f160y Gd 125 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 67 par14/055OR 675 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f212y Goo 132 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Gd 138 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 72 par23/065OR 725 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 71 · 5f160y Fm 138 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 140 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 70 par4/085OR 705 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 6f Gd 137 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 76 · 6f Sft 130 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 76 par11/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury45th5th0
2026-08-21Ffos Las51st2nd−1
2026-08-04Ffos Las51st2nd−1
2026-07-15Bath53rd4th−1
2026-06-23Ffos Las55th6th−1
2026-05-21Catterick57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0321/054/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/03/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
17/04/20264th6/168%70%+0.02
14/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/05/20267th5/287%0%-0.87
23/06/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
15/07/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
04/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
21/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
11/09/20265th11/142%43%+0.01