5
Alcaraz
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 201y
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Ludlow | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-25 | Newbury | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/06/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 01/08/2026 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |