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10

Arbaawy

3yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 74

Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 201y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who had fairly useful form in 3-y-o handicaps in first half of this year. Offered hope of a revival when beaten 3¼ lengths at Epsom last time (hampered/seemed unsuited by track). May build on that with Colin Keane booked/cheekpieces back on, provided he stays this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 79 par4/104OR 792 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 1m Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m Gd 129 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 79 par14/044OR 794 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 79 par16/053OR 793 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 79 · 1m1f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 78 · 7f213y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/073OR 784 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 76 · 1m Gd 133 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m113y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 75 par10/095OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs56th7th−1
2026-08-04Ffos Las43rd3rd0
2026-07-10Ascot310th9th+1
2026-06-13Sandown34th3rd+1
2026-05-16Newbury33rd2nd+1
2026-05-08Ascot43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/108/0510/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20253rd14/126%67%+0.40
24/10/20253rd9/276%50%-0.26
14/04/20264th11/142%73%+0.31
08/05/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
16/05/20263rd10/382%78%-0.05
13/06/20264th11/486%25%-0.61
10/07/202610th13/266%10%-0.56
04/08/20263rd13/891%71%-0.20
10/09/20266th4/179%44%-0.35