9
Barry's Boy
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 201y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Nottingham | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 15/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |