2
Bnaider
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 82
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 201y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Ffos Las | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -20.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |