11
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5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 201y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 58% | -0.18 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |