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3

Morcar

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 78

Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 201y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

61%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a drop in grade at Newbury (1¼m, firm) in July. Runner-up 2 of his 3 starts since, beaten 5½ lengths (fourth won since) at Windsor latest. Capable of hitting the frame again off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 1m1f209y Goo 158 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 82 par7/084OR 824 @ Windsor 01/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 81 · 1m3f99y Sft 135 · below its mark01/09/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 79 · 1m2f Goo 129 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 79 par18/044OR 794 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m2f Goo 128 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newbury 01/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m2f GF 127 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 77 par1/064OR 775 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 75 · 1m2f GF 142 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 78 par13/074OR 784 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 78 · 1m1f209y Goo 128 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Windsor 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m3f99y Goo 135 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 78 par24/084OR 78projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Windsor42nd2nd0
2026-07-23Sandown46th6th0
2026-07-13Windsor42nd2nd0
2026-07-02Newbury51st2nd−1
2026-06-01Newbury46th6th0
2026-05-09Lingfield45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/089/0513/0724/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20253rd10/147%60%+0.13
01/09/20258th28/10%0%0.00
18/04/202610th50/10%31%+0.31
09/05/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
01/06/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
02/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
13/07/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
23/07/20266th11/142%0%-0.42
24/08/20262nd11/142%83%+0.41