11
Big Bear Hug
7yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 69
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 201y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |