6
Blue Wonder
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 73
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 201y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Goodwood | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 5 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 31/05/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 14/06/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 04/09/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 08/10/2025 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 8% | -0.45 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |