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12

Cotton Bud

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 71

Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 201y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden at 2yrs for Kevin Philippart de Foy. Made a winning debut for current yard at Doncaster (1¼m) on return and has continued in good nick, fifth of 8 in handicap at Haydock (1¾m, soft) 26 days ago. Possibilities.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 23/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS23/0824 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f96y Sft 1265 @ Southwell 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 12829/0955 @ Nottingham 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 1m2f43y Goo 135 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 69 par24/045OR 694 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 74 · 1m3f188y Gd 129 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m5f16y Gd 125 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 73 par1/084OR 732 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m6f Hvy 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 72 par5/092OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock25th3rd+2
2026-08-01Hamilton44th4th0
2026-05-14York46th6th0
2026-04-24Doncaster51st2nd−1
2025-10-15Nottingham52nd3rd−1
2025-09-29Southwell54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0815/101/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +9.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20255th13/266%0%-0.66
17/09/20254th4/179%57%-0.22
29/09/20254th12/137%57%+0.20
15/10/20252nd16/116%88%+0.72
24/04/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
14/05/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
01/08/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
05/09/20265th25/10%43%+0.43