5
Due To Henry
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 201y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Yarmouth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Haydock | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 08/10/2025 | 13th | 5/1 | 74% | 8% | -0.66 |
| 20/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 15/09/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |