Sergei Breeze

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 74

Salisbury · Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 201y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.5

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-16	Sandown	4	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-13	Windsor	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-07-20	Windsor	3	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2025-10-02	Salisbury	4	8th	8th	0	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +24.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/10/2025	8th	150/1	0%	0%	0.00
20/07/2026	4th	300/1	0%	63%	+0.63
13/08/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	60%	+0.60
16/09/2026	2nd	18/1	5%	88%	+0.82