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9

Curran

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 71

Salisbury · Madar Corporation 'Season Finale' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 44y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally for current yard when capitalising on a good opportunity over C&D in July. Wasn't far off his best for the return to this trip when beaten 4½ lengths at Bath last time. May just prove vulnerable to a less-exposed one here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 1m5f219y Std 139 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 72 par11/105OR 725 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 71 · 1m4f Gd 131 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 1m6f Gd 131 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 69 par5/065OR 694 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 71 · 1m7f196y Goo 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 71 · 1m6f87y Goo 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 71 par11/074OR 715 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 70 · 1m6f44y Goo 142 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Chepstow 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 1m4f GF 141 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 74 par6/085OR 744 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 73 · 1m4f6y GS 151 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 73 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m6f GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 72 par13/092OR 72projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath26th4th+2
2026-08-31Epsom Downs414th14th0
2026-08-06Chepstow52nd3rd−1
2026-07-21Salisbury51st2nd−1
2026-07-11Chester45th5th0
2026-06-27Chester46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1027/066/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength46%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20255th9/488%20%-0.68
15/05/202614th25/10%7%+0.07
05/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
27/06/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
11/07/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
21/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
06/08/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
31/08/202614th33/10%0%0.00
13/09/20266th14/126%55%+0.28