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5

Mr Freedom

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 75

Salisbury · Madar Corporation 'Season Finale' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 44y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful dual-purpose performer. Ran as well as could be expected in a higher grade at Doncaster on penultimate start. Shaped as if ready for this step back up in trip when fourth in similar event at Newmarket (1½m) 7 days ago, only beaten 2¾ lengths.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 26/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark26/07/2024 · OR 80 par26/074OR 802 @ Goodwood 03/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 85 · 1m6f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2024 · OR 85 par3 @ Newmarket 24/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 85 · 1m6f Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/08/2024 · OR 85 par24/083OR 852 @ Bangor-on-Dee 22/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 125 · 2m3f123y Goo 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/03/2025 · OR 125 par3 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 82 · 1m6f44y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 82 par14/053OR 824 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m6f Sft 137 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m4f6y Goo 142 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 80 par1/074OR 803 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m3f197y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Newmarket 24/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 1m4f Goo 134 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 75 par24/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Newmarket44th4th0
2026-09-10Doncaster35th4th+1
2026-07-01Epsom Downs48th8th0
2026-06-12Goodwood45th5th0
2026-05-14Salisbury33rd2nd+1
2025-04-20Plumpton3+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0722/031/0724/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength25%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20241st7/282%100%+0.18
03/08/20246th12/137%58%+0.21
24/08/20245th3/184%0%-0.84
22/03/20253rd7/163%67%+0.04
14/05/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
12/06/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
01/07/20268th18/15%22%+0.17
10/09/20265th50/10%50%+0.50
24/09/20264th11/142%50%+0.08