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One Horse Town

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 72

Salisbury · Madar Corporation 'Season Finale' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 44y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won Kempton novice on fourth start for present yard last spring. Subsequently completed fairly useful hurdle 4-timer in Grade 2 Triumph Trial at Cheltenham last November. On potentially attractive mark for first Flat start on turf and market should offer plenty of clues (yard also saddles Viyanni).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +3.4
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hexham 07/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m48y GS 1527/0644 @ Stratford 13/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 1613 @ Kempton 19/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS19/1031 @ Cheltenham 15/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 123 · 2m87y Hvy 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 123 par2 @ Cheltenham 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 131 · 2m179y GS 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 131 par13/122OR 1311 @ Cheltenham 24/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 131 · 2m179y Sft 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 131 par1 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 134 · 2m Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 134 par21/021OR 1341 @ Cheltenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR 132 · 2m179y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 132 par1 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 129 · 2m Yie 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 129 par2/051OR 129projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-02Punchestown16th1st+4
2026-03-13Cheltenham113th8th+4
2026-02-21Kempton12nd-2th+4
2026-01-24Cheltenham12nd-2th+4
2025-12-13Cheltenham23rd1st+2
2025-11-15Cheltenham11st-3th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0615/1121/022/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
13/07/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
19/10/20251st1/699%100%+0.01
15/11/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
13/12/20253rd4/696%78%-0.19
24/01/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
21/02/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06
13/03/202613th40/10%37%+0.37
02/05/20266th20/10%55%+0.55