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Roc De Fer

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 82

Salisbury · Madar Corporation 'Season Finale' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f 44y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Typical Sir Mark Prescott improver. Landed back-to-back handicaps on all-weather before running at least as well when ¾-length second under a penalty at Musselburgh (13f) 8 weeks ago. Claims if taking another step forward over even further here (half-brother to an Old Borough Cup winner).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 26/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f14y Std 13326/1143 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 7f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS11/1234 @ Chelmsford City 18/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m Std 13318/1245 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 1m1f170y Goo 124 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 69 par18/065OR 695 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 68 · 1m3f23y Std 133 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 68 par27/075OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 68 par31/075OR 685 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 1m5f Gd 141 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 68 par7/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Musselburgh52nd3rd−1
2026-07-31Wolverhampton51st2nd−1
2026-07-27Southwell51st2nd−1
2026-06-18Ripon53rd4th−1
2025-12-18Chelmsford City44th4th0
2025-12-11Chelmsford City34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1118/067/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength74%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/202512th100/10%15%+0.15
11/12/20254th50/10%0%0.00
18/12/20254th28/10%63%+0.63
18/06/20263rd6/492%67%-0.25
27/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
31/07/20261st1/499%100%+0.01
07/08/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14