IvyArcIvyArc
16

Dash

5yo Gelding · 8-11

Sha Tin · Nanning Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: BHA33
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 19/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 12119/11C?C0 @ Sha Tin 27/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 119BHA42 @ Sha Tin 11/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 42 · 6f GF 117 · beat its mark11/01/2026 · OR 42 par11/0142OR 42BHA40 @ Sha Tin 25/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 6f Gd 115 · beat its mark25/01/2026 · OR 40 parBHA38 @ Sha Tin 15/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 38 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 38 par15/0338OR 38BHA37 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 37 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 37 parBHA35 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 35 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 35 par17/0535OR 35BHA33 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 33 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 33 parC0 @ Happy Valley 09/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1259/09C?projClass-projected finish: 10th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Happy Valley?10th10th0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA336th6th0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA3510th10th0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA3711th11th0
2026-03-15Sha TinBHA383rd3rd0
2026-01-25Sha TinBHA407th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1125/0117/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/202510th16/116%18%+0.02
27/12/20254th66/10%77%+0.77
11/01/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
25/01/20267th18/15%54%+0.49
15/03/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
12/04/202611th17/255%23%-0.32
17/05/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
27/06/20266th22/10%62%+0.62
09/09/202610th16/116%18%+0.02