14
Exceed The Wish
6yo Gelding · 8-5
Sha Tin · Nanning Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: BHA24
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA24 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA27 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA29 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength19%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 08/03/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 15/04/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 13/09/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 8% | -0.61 |