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5

Good Fortune

7yo Gelding · 9-6

Sha Tin · Nanning Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: BHA28
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA50 @ Sha Tin 07/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 50 · 7f Gd 125 · beat its mark07/12/2025 · OR 50 par7/1250OR 50C0 @ Sha Tin 01/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 123BHA44 @ Sha Tin 25/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 44 · 6f GF 119 · beat its mark25/01/2026 · OR 44 par25/0144OR 44BHA41 @ Sha Tin 01/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 41 · 6f Gd 117 · beat its mark01/03/2026 · OR 41 parBHA40 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 40 · 6f Gd 115 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 40 par22/0340OR 40BHA40 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 40 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 40 parBHA38 @ Sha Tin 03/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 38 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 38 par3/0538OR 38BHA36 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 36 · 6f Gd 131 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 36 parBHA28 @ Sha Tin 06/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 28 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 28 par6/0928OR 28projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Sha TinBHA281st1st0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA3612th12th0
2026-05-03Sha TinBHA3814th14th0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA4010th10th0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA405th5th0
2026-03-01Sha TinBHA415th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/121/033/056/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/12/202514th14/126%0%-0.26
01/01/202612th28/10%15%+0.15
25/01/202611th66/10%23%+0.23
01/03/20265th50/10%69%+0.69
22/03/20265th33/10%67%+0.67
12/04/202610th9/153%31%-0.22
03/05/202614th18/15%0%-0.05
27/06/202612th50/10%15%+0.15
06/09/20261st11/142%100%+0.58