15
Verbier
6yo Gelding · 9-7
Sha Tin · Nanning Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA29
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA37 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA29 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA29 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA31 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 70% | -0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 54% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 82% | -0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 23% | +0.07 |
| 13/09/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |