3
Aerovolanic
5yo Gelding · 9-3
Sha Tin · Tianjin Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 55% | -0.38 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 69% | -0.12 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |