12
Natural Numbers
5yo Gelding · 8-8
Sha Tin · Tianjin Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA69 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/01/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 100/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 08/03/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 08/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |