9
Papaya Brose
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Sha Tin · Tianjin Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -23.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 85% | -0.06 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 73% | -0.19 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |