10
Samarkand
9yo Gelding · 8-10
Sha Tin · Tianjin Handicap · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/12/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 09/09/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |