10
Lucrative Eight
4yo Gelding · 8-8
Sha Tin · Shanghai Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA55 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |