5
Red Sea
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Sha Tin · Shanghai Handicap · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA71
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 9% | -0.57 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |