1
Amazing Duck
7yo Gelding · 9-9
Sha Tin · Shenyang Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 62% | +0.06 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.46 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 85% | -0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |