IvyArcIvyArc
2

Circuit Marshal

5yo Gelding · 9-8

Sha Tin · Shenyang Handicap · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: BHA41
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Sha Tin 23/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 52 · 7f Gd 127 · beat its mark23/11/2025 · OR 52 par23/1152OR 52BHA52 @ Sha Tin 20/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m Gd 127 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 52 parC0 @ Sha Tin 19/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 12519/02C?BHA48 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 48 parBHA49 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 49 par26/0449OR 49BHA49 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 124 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 49 parBHA47 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 47 · 1m2f Gd 125 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 47 par31/0547OR 47BHA45 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 45 · 7f GF 122 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 45 parBHA41 @ Sha Tin 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 41 · 1m GF 117 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 41 par13/0941OR 41projClass-projected finish: 12th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Sha TinBHA416th6th0
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA4510th10th0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA4712th12th0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA4913th13th0
2026-04-26Sha TinBHA497th7th0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA482nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1122/0331/0513/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 5-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/11/20256th18/15%62%+0.56
20/12/202510th22/10%31%+0.31
19/02/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
22/03/20262nd33/10%92%+0.92
26/04/20267th5/174%54%-0.20
09/05/202613th9/153%8%-0.45
31/05/202612th28/10%15%+0.15
12/07/202610th25/10%31%+0.31
13/09/20266th18/15%62%+0.56