12
Special Hedge
7yo Gelding · 8-13
Sha Tin · Shenyang Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
90/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA34
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA34 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA37 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA39 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA41 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 21/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 14/02/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 15/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 01/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 26/04/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 17/05/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 15% | -0.43 |
| 07/06/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |